Chelsea vs Benfica: Chess on the Champions League Board
When Enzo Maresca’s Chelsea meet José Mourinho’s Benfica, expect a game of fine details rather than chaos. Both sides prefer control, both are used to winning, and both know Champions League nights are where reputations are made.
Chelsea’s Home Fortress
The Blues haven’t been perfect lately – just 2 wins in their last 6 across all competitions – but the numbers show a stronger picture than the results. Chelsea average nearly 60% possession, over 11 shots per game, and at Stamford Bridge they look especially tough.
In fact, they’ve avoided defeat in 27 of their last 30 home matches in all competitions. They’ve kept 11 clean sheets in their last 15 at the Bridge, and when they score first, they often run away with it. That’s the platform Maresca trusts to turn possession into pressure.
Champions League form is more mixed. Chelsea have won 23 of their last 40 in the competition but dropped 4 of their last 8. At home, though, they’re still strong: unbeaten in 12 of their last 15 with plenty of clean sheets. The only warning sign? When they do lose in Europe, it can be by heavy margins.
Benfica: Road Warriors
Benfica travel with confidence. They’ve lost just once in their last six, scoring almost two goals per game while keeping things tight at the back. Their strength really shines away from home – 15 wins in their last 20 away matches, 11 clean sheets, and unbeaten in 30 of their last 35 on the road.
It’s a staggering run that gives them belief they can frustrate Chelsea in their own backyard. In the Champions League, Benfica have won half of their last 40, showing they can mix it with Europe’s elite.
Key Battles
Maresca’s midfield duo of Moisés Caicedo and Enzo Fernández will try to control tempo, feeding Cole Palmer and Pedro Neto between the lines. Up front, João Pedro and Estêvão Willian carry the creative spark.
For Benfica, Georgiy Sudakov’s progressive passing and Fredrik Aursnes’ energy in midfield will be crucial. Vangelis Pavlidis brings the finishing touch, with Dodi Lukebakio’s pace always a threat on the break.
Team News
Chelsea miss Levi Colwill, Liam Delap, Dário Essugo, Gabriel Slonina, Facundo Buonanotte, Raheem Sterling, Mykhaylo Mudryk and Axel Disasi.
Benfica are without Richard Ríos and Gianluca Prestianni.
Prediction
Chelsea’s home strength versus Benfica’s away record makes this razor-thin. Expect a low-scoring, tactical clash where one moment could decide it. The model tips Chelsea to edge it 1-0, with a 45% probability on that exact scoreline.
